The Chase for the Championship

Last updated : 01 March 2005 By Andy Green
In order to attain 30 points from our remaining 15 games we need a dramatic turn around in form. Well, not so much form, as results. Our form over the last 6 weeks has not been great, but it hasn’t been that bad either. By my reckoning, a few late lapses in defence (Chesterfield and Luton), attack (Doncaster) and by officials (Peterborough) have deprived us of 6 points. An additional 6 points would have seen us well clear at the top, but we didn’t and aren’t, so never mind.

Turning our attentions to the task ahead, what do we really need to secure automatic promotion? Taylor has set a target of 89 points. Like any good manager should, he has set his sights high. I think 89 points will be more than enough. To achieve this total we would need to win a minimum of 8 games and draw 6, allowing for only 1 defeat. If only 1 defeat seems a tall order and 3 seems more realistic, then we would need to win 9 and draw 3. The maximum number of defeats possible would be 5, meaning we would need to win 10. Which ever way you cut it, we would need to see an impressive turnaround in results.

In my opinion we would secure Championship football with just 84 points. Why 84? Well I’ve simply assumed that Tranmere, our nearest rivals, will probably maintain their current rate of points accumulation.

On the basis of the first two thirds of the season, I reckon Tranmere will accrue another 25 points, giving them a total of 83. A point more than this (not prepared to risk goal difference) and the Tigers are very likely to achieve back to back promotions. We would need to win a minimum of 5 games and draw 10, allowing for no defeats. Not losing a match seems unlikely. We could afford to lose 2 games, win 6 and draw 7 or even win 7, draw 4 and lose 4. This time, the maximum number of defeats possible would be 6, meaning we would need to win 8 and draw 1. Of all these scenarios the win 7, draw 4 and lose 4 appears most realistic. With this in mind here are my predictions for the remaining fixtures:

WrexhamHW
Milton Keynes DonsAD
Colchester UnitedHW
Tranmere RoversAD
Hartlepool UnitedHW
Torquay UnitedHW
BournemouthAL
Port ValeHW
Oldham AthleticAL
BarnsleyHD
Bradford CityAL
Swindon TownHW
WalsallAW
Sheffield WednesdayHD
BrentfordAL