The Bare Necessities

Last updated : 24 March 2004 By Andy Green

The question on every City fan's lips at the moment: what do we need to get promoted? Although the answer isn't certain, plenty of speculation surrounds the issue of just how many points will be required to secure third place.

You can look at past promotions and take an average. 84 points would almost certainly guarantee you the promised land of Division Two, but as low a total as 75 has secured third place in recent seasons. The average for the last 8 years is about 81.

You might choose instead to predict the remaining results of the seven teams left in the mixer (City, Donny, Oxo, Town, Gulls, Stags and Imps) and extrapolate from there. My own attempts have the table looking like this:

Hull City87 (Win 4 Draw 6 Lose 0)
Doncaster Rovers85
Oxford United84
Torquay United83
Huddersfield Town 81
Lincoln City78
Mansfield Town73

...no problems there then!

Another option is to average out the likely make-up of our remaining results based on our record to date:
W 20 / 4 = 5
D 9 / 4 = 2
L 7 / 4 = 2

...suggesting that our remaining 10 fixtures may well return results of 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats, which would once again return us 87 points - surely enough for promotion and maybe even enough for the championship. Only 6 weeks to go and all will be revealed!